Key Takeaways
After three decades of sustained growth, wine industry metrics have flattened out. The underlying causes of this market shift are modern day developments and therefore lack historical solutions. However, as we examine the trends more closely, there are positive indicators hidden within the data.
01 The supply imbalance of wine is caused by two dominant factors
Today’s reduction of wine consumption, and corresponding supply imbalance, is heavily influenced by a fundamental shift in consumer demographics coupled with a resurgence of anti-alcohol campaigns. The decline in the wine-friendly Boomer population and a change in the sentiment towards alcohol have led to the continued reduction in demand.
02 The decline of the Boomer population will drive a more aggressive outreach to younger consumers
The market is rotating out of 60+ aged consumers who index higher for wine purchases compared to other alcoholic beverage categories and making way for consumers who index lower for wine. Developing occasion-based marketing campaigns designed specifically for consumers aged 30 to 45 may help offset the decline in the Boomer segment.
03 Our take on the metrics powering the industry downturn
We estimate Boomers’ impact on sales declines should peak between 2029 and 2031, the premium business will return to flat growth between 2027 and 2029 and off-premise will move to flat growth between 2028 and 2031.
Trend of Winery Financial Health
Most wine owners report their businesses’ financial health as generally good. Even through softer sales and lower profitability, the resiliency of the industry is shown in the latest responses.
Trend of Industry Sentiments
This year’s business sentiment index is at a 10-year low point. The most dramatic change revolves around consumer demand–which is the category of highest concern.
US Total Table Wine Consumed
Unfortunately, industry-driven oversupply is not causing our current imbalance. Today’s issues are driven by reduced demand caused by unprecedented changes in consumer demographics and attitudes.
State of the US Wine Industry 2025
Watch the replay of this virtual event to review findings from the 24th annual State of the US Wine Industry report. Author Rob McMillian is joined by industry professionals to discuss what we can apply from past supply imbalances, which consumer segments have the most potential, when declining sales will bottom, and more.
Explore previous wine reports
Written by SVB's Rob McMillan
As one of the US wine industry’s top business analysts, Rob assesses current market conditions and provides a unique trends forecast in his annual report.
