Blake Taylor, First Citizens VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst, provides timely insights and in-depth commentaries on the issues impacting the economy and the markets.
Making Sense: In Brief video
Making Sense: In Brief
The week ahead for markets and the economy
Monday, March 10, 2025
Blake: Market volatility persisted last week as investors were whipsawed by changing news on tariffs.
Jobs figures for February were roughly in line with expectations, but markets have already moved their eyes onto next month's figures, which will start to show the effect of job cuts in the federal government sector.
This is yet another busy week ahead. Attention will turn from tariffs to the effect of tariffs. Wednesday's Consumer Price Index release for February will be the most closely watched event of the week. Inflation is still a problem, running at closer to 3% than 2%. And if this week's release shows prices are moving in the wrong direction, markets will have to contend with more of a dilemma between a more uncertain growth outlook, which would suggest more rate cuts, and hotter inflation, which would lead markets to expect fewer rate cuts.
There's already a lot of noise coming from Washington, but this week markets will be watching another story from the capitol—government funding and a potential government shutdown.
Congress must reach an agreement to fund the government by the end of the week or risk a government shutdown. In the last several years, government shutdowns have had limited economic effects, but markets are more sensitive to policy today than usual.
Lastly, on Friday, we'll see the latest consumer sentiment report. Sentiment has taken a turn lower recently, and consumers' expectations for future inflation—an important factor for actual inflation—have been on the rise.
So things to watch this week. One, CPI inflation on Wednesday. Two, news on Congress reaching a deal to avoid a government shutdown. And three, consumer sentiment on Friday.
Author
Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8540 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964
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About the Entities, Brands and Services Offered: First Citizens Wealth™ (FCW) is a marketing brand of First Citizens BancShares, Inc., a bank holding company. The following affiliates of First Citizens BancShares are the entities through which FCW products are offered. Brokerage products and services are offered through First Citizens Investor Services, Inc. ("FCIS"), a registered broker-dealer, Member FINRA, Opens in a new tab and SIPC, Opens in a new tab. Advisory services are offered through FCIS, First Citizens Asset Management, Inc. and SVB Wealth LLC, all SEC registered investment advisors. Certain brokerage and advisory products and services may not be available from all investment professionals, in all jurisdictions or to all investors. Insurance products and services are offered through FCIS, a licensed insurance agency. Banking, lending, trust products and services, and certain insurance products and services are offered by First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Member FDIC, Opens in a new tab, and an Equal Housing Lender, and SVB, a division of First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company.
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